Professionally, I focus on creating social benefit startups. In my Saturday morning emails I share what I’m learning and thinking. Topics range from better living and parenting to business and philosophy.
AI Arms Race? For fans of Kurzweil and Bostrom, now comes Aschenbreener with Situational Awareness. Yes, he covers exponentials by talking about orders of magnitude and drawing straight lines on log plots like Kurzweil. And yes, he talks about the importance of AI doing what we want like Bostrom. But more than the others, he emphasizes the arms race dynamics of AGI. For example, in an arms race with national security implications, he wants research done in secret under the highest security levels. He draws a parallel to the Manhattan project and asserts a pivotal moment was when Germany did not learn of graphite’s usefulness. What’s your take? Do you want national governments, for-profit companies or open source communities developing AGI? A few related things:
A colleague pointed out that the calculations in the piece may depend on text-based interface rather than real-time video processing and production which may be required for some applications.
If you didn’t get enough of Kurzweil on living forever, including taking all the supplements, check out The Protocol. Does it work? Is it worth it?
This weekend, I’ll be listening to Carl Shulman on the 80,000 Hours podcast for another perspective. And I’ve already pre-ordered my copy of the Singularity is Nearer.
Kids and Devices. Now, don’t get me wrong. I use my device all the time and see technology overall as positive. Kids can learn a lot from technology in the right situations. I’m excited about the possibility of AI tutors and therapists, for example. Yet, I am concerned about kids using gamified social media and messaging with anyone in the world. A friend from college did a great job summarizing the downsides with the Ultimate Guide to Kids, Smartphones, Social Media, and Screens. And she offers some ideas of what to do about it. (If you don’t know Catherine, she is the one that literally wrote the book on why and how to have fun.)
Mr. Beast on Give Directly. If your kids are going to watch YouTube, this MrBeast video is the one to see: “We Gave Every Family in a Village a Full Year's Salary.” It’s a heartwarming look at the benefits of giving unconditional cash transfers to people without much money. And research backs up this story with positive effects from unconditional cash transfers. When Yang brought universal basic income into the public consciousness, some worried about the motivational effects of ongoing cash transfers. I agree, incentives matter. Risk aversion, poverty traps and cognitive load from poverty also matter. Perhaps there is an important difference between smaller payments over time vs. a lump sum that is enough to start a business. (BTW, Andrew is now working on reforming the political system.)
Until next time,
Miles
PS Purpose Built Interview. I was interviewed about Purpose Built by startup studio enthusiast and community builder Max Pog. If you watch, please let me know what you think.
On a recent flight I noticed that every parent had their young (3-5) kids hooked up to an iPad, while they were watching their own show on their own iPad. All I could think was ‘you squandered the opportunity of interacting and bonding with your child for 3 hours through story telling, game playing, and drawing by choosing to outsource your child’s development to a video.’ I wonder when we’ll fully see the effect of childrens’ decreased imagination and creativity on our society (fewer innovators, lower growth).